With the transfer portal reshaping college basketball, the gap between the true contenders and everyone else feels wider than ever. Roster continuity is rare, elite depth is concentrated, and because of that, I’m fading the extreme longshots in futures markets. In March, guard play still wins, and I’m targeting teams that can control tempo, play smart, and create late-clock offense.

Florida (+1200, DraftKings)

Per BartTorvik’s date filter, since January 1st, the Gators rank No. 1 nationally in efficiency-based power ratings. That’s not noise, it's dominance on both ends. They arguably have the best front court in the country and are coached by Todd Golden, one of the sharpest analytical minds in the sport. The biggest swing factor was guard development, and that’s trending up fast. Boogie Fland and Xavian Lee, two highly regarded portal additions, are settling in and elevating the backcourt ceiling. When you pair elite interior presence with improving guard play and top-tier efficiency on offense and defense, you’re looking at a legitimate juggernaut. A repeat run would not be surprising.

Houston (+1000, FanDuel)

Yes, they’ve dropped three straight, and that’s exactly why this number is interesting. Buy the dip on a price that was just +750 a week ago. On KenPom, the Houston Cougars still sit 6th nationally, powered by a top-15 offense and top-10 defense. The backcourt trio of freshman Kingston Flemings alongside veterans Milos Uzan and Emmanuel Sharpe gives them shot creation and experience. Add in interior pieces like Chris Cenac and Joseph Tugler, and this is one of the most complete lineups in the country. Most importantly, they’re led by Hall of Fame coach Kelvin Sampson. Houston thrives in the margins, ball security, offensive rebounding, forcing turnovers, and that formula travels in March.

Alabama (+6000, DraftKings)

Here’s the “long shot,” but not in the traditional sense. The Alabama Crimson Tide defense is shaky, no doubt. But Nate Oats’ math-heavy, pace-and-space system gives them a puncher’s chance against anyone. They rank No. 3 nationally in offensive efficiency and may have the most explosive backcourt in the country with Labaron Philon and Aden Holloway. In a one-game setting, elite shot volume plus high-level guard play can flip any matchup. Coaches won’t sleep well the night before facing this offense. If they get hot at the right time, +6000 will look like a steal.

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