The featured game tonight in Dayton pits the SMU Mustangs against the Miami (OH) RedHawks, with FanDuel listing SMU as a 7.5-point favorite and a total of 162.5.

At 31-1, Miami has been one of the most talked-about mid-majors in the country. After their early conference tournament loss, their tournament status was uncertain, but they’ve earned another opportunity here. BartTorvik projects this matchup at SMU 86-80, with SMU ranked 41st and Miami 87th in the ratings. Defensively, neither team has been sharp of late. Since February, SMU ranks 148th in defensive efficiency, while Miami sits at 120th. That opens the door for a high-scoring game, especially given the stylistic matchup.

Miami’s offense thrives in the pick-and-roll, an area where SMU has struggled all season. To compensate, SMU may be forced into more zone looks, potentially funneling shots from beyond the arc. That’s a risky strategy against a Miami team that shoots 37.1% from three, ranking 21st nationally. SMU ranks 354th in three-point rate allowed, making perimeter defense a clear vulnerability. In March, the best way to pull off an upset is to get hot from three.

This game likely comes down to three-point variance, which favors the RedHawks. With Dayton just about an hour from campus, Miami should also benefit from a strong home-like environment, further tilting the edge in their direction. If they can hold their own on the defensive glass, they’ll be in a great position to compete throughout.

Pick: Miami (OH) +6.5, with a sprinkle on the Money-Line at +250

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