The UFC will be celebrating Mexican Independence Day in style this weekend with an entertaining Fight Night card headlined by the rematch between Alexa Grasso and Valentina Shevchenko for the UFC Flyweight title. This will be one of the rare occasions that a UFC championship will be on the line during a non-PPV event. Let’s take a closer look at how this fight could potentially play out:
Grasso is 16-3 with six of her wins coming via stoppage, including her fourth-round submission win over Shevchenko in their first matchup earlier this year at UFC 285. She has won five straight fights overall and is 8-3 overall in the UFC. Grasso is a well-rounded fighter who has decent striking and solid BJJ skills on the ground. This event was largely built around Grasso and this matchup, and there will be a lot of pressure on the champ to prove that her first win over Shevchenko was much more than luck.
Shevchenko is 23-4 with 15 wins coming via stoppage and she will be looking to regain the 125-pound title in this matchup and avenge her first loss at flyweight in the UFC. Prior to her loss against Grasso in March, Shevchenko had won nine straight fights and her only losses in the UFC had been to Amanda Nunes at bantamweight. Shevchenko is an extremely well-rounded fighter with excellent striking and solid skills on the ground as well. The former champ turned 35 earlier this year, so it will be interesting to see where she’s at in this one.
I expect this matchup to play out pretty similarly to their first meeting earlier this year, which was a fairly close fight until Shevchenko slipped while throwing a spinning kick, allowing Grasso to immediately capitalize with the face crank/rear-naked choke. Shevchenko will almost certainly be more calculated and careful in her attacks this time around, and she should be able to avoid putting herself into such a bad position in this one. I think Shevchenko will land the more damaging strikes and be able to largely dictate whether this matchup stays standing or on the ground. She landed 4 of her 6 takedown attempts in the first matchup, while Grasso was unable to find any of her own. I would be surprised if this fight doesn’t make it to the championship rounds, and think there’s a solid chance it goes to decision with Shevchenko getting the win.
As for betting this fight, the money line for Shevchenko is currently hovering around -175 at most sportsbooks, which is a much lower number for her than she’s had in a majority of her UFC fights (her money line closed at -870 in the first matchup vs Grasso). If you aren’t comfortable picking a winner, I definitely expect this one to reach the championship rounds, and the Fight to Start Round 4 prop is currently sitting around -250. If you’re looking for a riskier play, consider taking Shevchenko to win in the latter rounds and/or by decision.
