Will the Dogs Bark?

Is Friday night the night of the underdog? Three of the four games coming at us Friday night feature a spread of at least 7 points. The final game is a 2 vs 3 battle that seems like it could be a tossup, yet features a 4 point line.

First up, Brandon Miller and Alabama take on the Aztecs of San Diego State. Bama has dominated through two rounds of the tournament, but SDSU is no pushover. They will present challenges that Bama hasn’t seen for a while, and can play a physical brand of basketball while matching Bama’s athleticism. Might they present some similar challenges as Oklahoma did in their drubbing of Alabama earlier this year? We will see how tonight plays out, but for my money, +7.5 points is too much. Give me the dog in Game 1 with the points.

SDSU +7.5

The other #1 seed in action is Houston, who was pushed to the limit by #16 Northern Kentucky in round 1, and trailed Auburn by 10 at the half in round 2. You know who is far superior to both of those opponents? The Miami Hurricanes. Jim Larranaga’s group is talented, tourney-tested, and tough to play against. They are one of the few teams in the dance with the guards to match up with Shead and Sasser, and much like Houston is, should be healthier going into the second weekend. They dispatched Indiana and Round 2, and have been consistent all year long as the Co-Regular season Champs in the ACC. I would have thought this line would have been closer to 3 or 4, so I will happily take the 7.5 and back the Canes to keep it close.

MIA +7.5

I know Creighton is a great team, and were severely underseeded in this tournament, but the level of disrespect continuously thrown at Princeton is baffling. The Arizona game was no fluke, as if they shot the 3 decently they would have won going away. The Tigers backed it up by demolishing a strong Missouri team that was heavily favored in Round 2. Princeton will be undersized, and overmatched athletically, but let’s not act like that wasn't the case in Rounds 1 and 2. Few teams match the size and athleticism of Arizona’s squad, and Creighton isn't one of them. Princeton is due to shoot the ball better than they did in their first 2 games, and when they do, it will surely give the Blue Jays fits. I like Creighton to move on, but 10.5 points is too many to give a team that can slow down the pace and limit possessions.

Princeton +10.5

Texas is a great team, and quite possibly should have been on the 1 line, but there is a theme at play here. Sean Miller’s Xavier team can go up and down with the Longhorns and match their offensive output. I envision a game here not dissimilar from the KSU v MSU game last night, that features big shot making, and limited defense. These teams will get up and down, and launch threes all night. Neither backcourt will shy away from making a big play, and they both have some size down low. I think we can anticipate one of the better games of the tournament here that should come down to a few possessions at the end. WIth that said, it is the shrewd move to take the points. 4 points isn't a ton, but it is enough to back the underdog.

Xavier +4

Let’s enjoy the last day of the season that features more than 2 games, and root for close matchups and high drama.