Tonight’s featured First Four matchup pits NC State against Texas in a rematch of their November meeting in Maui, where Texas came out on top 102–97. It’s worth noting those Maui games tend to produce inflated scores due to favorable shooting environments, and Texas took full advantage, knocking down 16 of 32 from three.

The current line on FanDuel has Texas at -111 on the moneyline with a total of 157.5. Since February 14th, neither team has been in great form, combining for a 5–11 record. That said, both offenses have remained efficient, ranking inside the top 30 over that span, while the defenses have struggled, Texas ranks 148th and NC State sits at 237th.

From a matchup standpoint, Texas is expected to run a strict drop coverage while emphasizing limiting catch-and-shoot threes, which directly targets one of NC State’s preferred offensive looks. Quadir Copeland has shown improvement against drop coverage recently, but if the Wolfpack want to win, he likely needs to get to at least 15 points.

All signs point toward offense in this one, but the Vegas line feels short. With a total set at 157.5 and BartTorvik projecting closer to 165, it’s hard to expect consistent stops from either side. I lean toward the over 157.5, and for props, Copeland 15+ points at -142 on FanDuel is worth a look.

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