Clemson vs Iowa currently sits at Iowa -138 on the moneyline with a total of 138.5, and this projects to be a true half-court battle. Both teams rank among the slowest in the country in tempo, so possessions should be limited, and every trip will matter.
Clemson runs a pack-line style defense with two bigs protecting the rim, often funneling opponents into outside shots. They allow threes at a 42.9% rate, 291st worst in the country, but they do a great job preventing transition opportunities. That strength won’t matter much here, though, because Iowa plays at an extremely slow pace (361st in tempo) and rarely looks to run.
Iowa has had issues defending the post at times this season, but the absence of Carter Welling (10.2 PPG, 5.4 REB) should make things easier for the Hawkeyes inside. All Clemson has the strength off the frontcourt; guard play is what wins games in March.
Ultimately, this game will likely be decided by half-court efficiency, and that’s where I give the edge to Iowa. Clemson has struggled all season defending elite guards in the pick-and-roll, which sets up well for Bennet Stritz, one of the best point guards in the nation. I expect Stritz to control the game, score at a high level, and create open looks from three for his teammates that make up a top 75 3-point shooting team.
The Pick : Iowa ML -138
